6th floor with living across south facing any opposite, 3 bedrooms, separate toilet. With
Cellar, Private parking, Guardian.
Bouscat Centre, near all amenities, park the Hermitage, school and shopping center.
visits from March 12, free on.
"The Chinese are trying to appropriate the intellectual property"
On February 15, 2011 by Ana Lutzky
* and Technos Innovations
Battle of Kuai
© SIPA
Since yesterday, 14 February 2011 China is the second largest economy, its GDP has exceeded that of Japan. China is the fourth patent filing abroad. A double performance that puts a new light on both the turn of the Middle Kingdom. Frank Tetaz, intellectual property specialist, discusses the numbers with the Factory New.
L'Usine Nouvelle - According to figures issued last week by WIPO, China is the fourth global patent filing. Is this remarkable?
Franck Tetaz (associate at consulting firm Regimbeau) - is dazzling. China introduced in 2010 and about twelve thousand patents, with the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). It is now the fourth behind the U.S., Japan and Germany. The number of patent applications exploded: it grew by 56.2% in 2010, and has tripled since 2006!
careful what that means: this is a prerequisite to filing a patent abroad. The figure released by WIPO for PCT patents filed with the agency, not those filed in China.
What is a PCT?
With TCP, a company buys time to protect themselves abroad. It's a fairly simple formality, in one language for 180 countries. But that does not give patent: it must then file a patent for each country.
The number of patents filed in China is for its 300,000. By comparison, 12,000 PCT, this is nothing!
Does it mean that China is innovating a lot and starts to export its technology abroad?
must be cautious when it comes to figures from China. It is a planned economy. However, innovation is the priority of the great helmsman of the moment, official speeches show. President Hu Jintao wants to move the country towards a more non- the "toolbox", but technology: before we had to factories, now we must innovate. Beijing displays the same goals: to be at 50,000 PCT patents filed with WIPO in 3 years.
voluntarism is in Chinese. Beijing achieved its objectives by deploying the slogan after local party leaders, and giving bonuses to each PCT filed.
Behind these 12,000 patents, there would be wind?
For now, the rate of conversion of a PCT national patent application is very low: Chinese entrepreneurs give up and not going through. Only special cases give rise to genuine patent application in France or Europe.
First, because it's expensive. We must translate the document using a translator, and be represented physically with WIPO. French SMEs that we accompany and want to protect their technology in China must pay between 6,000 and 10,000 euros, depending on the size of the text.
giant Chinese telecommunications ZTE has filed its own patent 2000. Place it in Europe, it is a bonanza of 8 million. Add the United States, and the budget that the Chinese company should devote to protecting its innovations $ 16 million. This has something to cool his ardor industrial property! Only by this phenomenon, there is loss.
half of patents are rounded up by telecom companies. A highlight of China?
fact, ZTE is the second ranking (1863 applications). Another great actor of the Chinese sector, Huawei (1528 applications) is fourth. This does not surprise me.
These protection practices related to the type of innovation. In telecoms, life cycles are quite low. Many innovations are small dots on process. The strategy is then to have a lot of patents to create a mass effect, occupy the field and hinder competition. The company seeks to impose itself by mass more than by quality, to have an active approach so that if at any time just to annoy his rival, she has something bothering her too. Companies jaugent is the weight of paper available to them! And then they make arrangements.
pharmacy In the contrary, the life cycles are longer. You need a patent and a single, but strong in the long term, to cope with a generic manufacturer, for example.
The number of PCT filed is a good indicator of breath innovative country, provided they look sector by sector.
What teaching French companies can draw from this momentum Chinese?
The Chinese are currently ownership of intellectual property and better protect their own innovations. They begin to litigation between them. The use of utility models, "sort of" patent lite ', is spreading in the mechanics and electronics. He must be aware. Many still think it's the Wild West and all it takes to pay. Ongoing trials in China of industrial property, there are hundreds.
How can SMEs react?
French SMEs must take care and protect their marks against their subcontractors, for example. Schneider was sentenced to 31 million for infringement because a subcontractor had filed its technology on Chinese territory. Need to plan, make the documentary watch.
http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/les-chinois-sont-en-train-de-s-approprier-la-propriete-intellectuelle.N146623
This utility model "patent light" has a life span shorter than a standard patent : 10 years against 20 years for a standard patent. It is also less expensive because the applicant does not comply with an initial review.
I personally accompanied the network Curie who had organized a conference in Shanghai on the enhancement of public research. We visited a center of activity south of Shanghai. Where we only saw a few fences and a yard, is preparing the first Asian manufacturer of monoclonal antibodies nucléaux the pharmaceutical industry.
Monday, February 28, 2011.
French industry in the Arab world in crisis The
February 14, 2011Industries
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© SCOTT NELSON / The New York Times-REDUX-REA
articles related
"must get back to business in Egypt» Egypt "some contracts with France likely to be shelved" sponsored links
events that shook Egypt and Tunisia leave casts threats of reply in the Arab world. Enough to worry the global economic players, including French manufacturers. Inventory of their involvement in the region, supporting card.The popular uprisings could continue to shake the Arab world. In many countries of the region, the terrain resembles that of Tunisia: corruption, unemployment, inequality and locking policy. The leaders of major groups are monitoring the situation carefully: in all these countries, French companies have set up subsidiaries, and factories.Several data to assess the links economic differences between countries. Direct Investment (FDI) represent amounts invested by Actors (French here) in a given country. A factory built (or purchased), upgraded facilities or the creation of a joint venture are driving up the amount of FDI. Other significant size: the physical presence of French nationals or of affiliates.
French presence in North Africa and Middle East(Click to enlarge)
Regarding investment French, both countries are clear: Egypt and Morocco. The Egyptian situation is very peculiar: the acquisition of Orascom by Lafarge in 2007 strongly impacts the numbers. This operation of EUR 8.8 billion represents a significant portion of the 9.9 billion French FDI in the country. Other companies operating in Egypt are hexagonal mainly from the energy sectors (GDF Suez), electrical equipment (Schneider Electric, Nexans) and the food industry (Danone, Lactalis and Bel).In Morocco, invested 8.293 billion euros from a larger number of companies. The government Morocco has set up a special economic policy to attract foreign investment (in perspective in this story Pierre-Olivier Rouaud ). The results are conclusive: Renault based in Tangier and intends to develop a local Industrial / OEM. French companies who settle in Morocco represent areas of technical excellence with high added value. In aeronautics, the outsourcing is structured around the establishment of EADS Morocco Aviation and Safran. Veolia are also present, GDF, Bouygues, Geodis or Alcatel Lucent.Strong links with former coloniesquantities of French nationals highlight another aspect of the French presence, more historical. The countries formerly colonized by France (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) welcomed three of them close to 90 000 French. Economic ties built in the last century remain, and are also observable by the number of French establishments in these countries.Far from the French sphere of influence, the UAE were 2.616 billion euros of investment. In this country, like Libya or Yemen, leaders are concerned about the rising challenges. On 9 February, the Forum of Civil Society in the Gulf has called the conservative monarchies of the region to promote democracy and freedom of speech, release political prisoners and to provide their country of incorporation.
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Data Collection and Editing: Morgan Remy and Remy Maucourt
Making map: Matthieu Canu
http:/ / www.usinenouvelle.com/article/l-industrie-francaise-dans-un-monde-arabe-en-crise.N146501
cf EXPANSION!LIFE IN JAIL EXPENSIVE!
http://www.lexpansion.com/economie/enquete-sur-le-cout-de-la-vie-en-prison_249294.html
survey on the cost of life in prison
By Franck Dedieu and Geraldine Meignan - posted 22/02/2011 at 09:55
top flight fares
Bottle Water: + 102%
Badoit 1.5 L: 1.21 euros in a prison in Picardy, against 60 cents in a supermarket nearby
Cereals: + 38%
Chocapic wheat and chocolate : 2.70 euros to the prison in Laval (2009), e 1.96 cons on the site Auchandirect
Chocolate: + 129%
Tablet Crunch milk: 1.83 euros in a prison in Picardy, against 80 cents in a supermarket nearby
Sugar: + 85%
1 kilo: 1.74 euros in a prison in Picardy, against 94 cents in a supermarket nearby
Refrigerator, Cooking, Television: 78%
is the annual profitability in Lons-le-Saunier for rent (198 euros per inmate per year) of these three appliances (purchase value: 252 euros).
Pot Nutella: + 31%
400 g: 3.04 euros to the detention of Muret, cons 2.32 EUR Intermarché Toulouse
Kiri: + 142%
8 servings, 160 grams: 3.83 euros in a prison in Picardy, against 1.58 euros in a supermarket nearby
Tea : + 62%
25 bags Lipton: 2.04 euros to the prison in Laval (2009), against 1.26 euros on the site Auchandirect
Coca-Cola: + 22%
Box 33 cl: 50 cents to prison in Laval (2009), against 41 cents on the site Auchandirect
Toothpaste: + 55%
Signal 75 ml: 1.04 EUR in a prison in the central region, against 1.61 euros at Carrefour neighbor
Nivea Creme: + 17%
Tube 100 ml: 2.60 euros in a prison in the central region, cons € 2.22 Carrefour in nearby
Toilet paper: 77% + 39 cents
in September 2009 in the prison of Saint-Malo, against 22 cents as the first current price on the site Carrefour.fr
Exactly the position of the Christian League, a Christian Artwork (coming soon) conservation of the cords and it is still a job. Estimated cost perO
bishopric about 450 000 € two salaries and a half, a lab, etc. ...
can find to cheaper now disappear biology laboratory.
No waiting period for removal of the cords have obstetrician schedules worthy of the FORMER SeNeCeFe.
No dead time of the survey work paid by mail, hours very flexible 10 H 15 H (we'll not overload the officiating in the delivery room) and skills: Biologists, hematologists, Virologists etc. .... Pediatricians. Because it is the beginning of a string of CARE!
And we must ensure proper collection, transportation then correct and the presence or absence of viruses or agents in the cords (Essential Diagnostic)
FINALLY!
KEEP SECRET WHAT IS "HOLY" or "OWN FAMILY" AND THE ONLY COMPETENCE OF PHYSICIANS AND THEIR FAMILIES.
The tightness of Hippocrates is not strong enough o)
KNOTYS SEUTON!
Take the initiative when you want to smoke! It's the right solution!
THE FAIR BEIGE
February 26, 2011
Benedict XVI encourages the donation of umbilical cord
Pope Benedict XVI said participants of the meeting of the Pontifical Academy for Life:
"medical and scientific research is valued not only for researchers but for the civilian community. This value and the need for solidarity, are very well highlighted in the case of using stem cells from umbilical cord .Benedict XVI urged his listeners to "do promoters of a genuine human and Christian solidarity . The pope, however, expressed hostility to " the proliferation of private banks " for the preservation of cord blood, saying they "weaken the true spirit of solidarity .
"This is important clinical applications and promising research on the scientific level but whose realization depends on the generosity at the time of delivery and appropriateness of structures".
Posted February 26, 2011 at 3:56 p.m. by Michael Jan
aid you, God will help.
The bishop answered questions from parishioners - Saint-Didier
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
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As part of his pastoral visit to the Deanery, Bishop d'Ornellas, bishop of Rennes took part on Saturday 12 February at a meeting with parishioners at Saint-Didier. He has answered many questions posed by the Catholic Church's life and problems company.Regarding attendance rather old Sunday Mass, the bishop acknowledged: " It is more difficult to bring young people of today years churches. " on priestly vocations, Bishop d'Ornellas emphasized" the magnitude of celibacy . "In Ille-et-Vilaine, many people mistakenly believe that there will be more priests! " launched the prelate. Replying to a question about the ecology, the bishop spoke "spiritual responsibility towards of our children. ""According to Catholic moral teaching, every human being evolves for itself," the bishop recalled by answering a question on Bioethics. Similarly, the birth of "baby" is a risk to humans. "It would be preferable to use cells from the umbilical cord," he said . Turning finally about research on human embryos, Bishop of Ornellas said categorically: "Do not give the Telethon at the risk of an accomplice. "
---http://www.ouest-france.fr/actu/actuLocale_-L-eveque-repond-aux-questions-des-paroissiens-_35087-avd-20110215-59911022_actuLocale. htm
That is clear. Maybe it would
desirable to go just a little further and take the initiative?
sick children there will unfortunately always, the families they would not want to take this forward into a therapy acceptable by our religious authorities thus meets our values?
---The organization of the material world can not escape the responsible view, moral and spiritual.
families to take up this problem and the solution would need to make a moral support and especially support for a move towards the realization of a therapy that would be within the religious framework chosen by the Christians.
Here nobody does anything, only the truth imposes itself at all.
The alternative, which would be to see the problem and refuse to make a Christian solution, it would again, as always, make the man an object of commerce.is something shocking yesterday that was not acceptable, will not be accepted today.---Against all enslavement.
C is very simple, the labor contracts with wages and engaging both parties before the law and justice is disappearing.
C e is not a trade unionist who can tell you. The world of work ie the workers, their families and teachers of technology and their families have been abandoned is an understatement.
To provide a future for our children we must already think about setting up a Guild of Crafts, which will handle the job, research and teaching.
But not only does it manage the social side as well the legal aid and appeal to justice.
In addition if it is desirable to afford a future Guild Trades manage the PATENTS and especially the new patents (claims to the invention to prove) in coordination with the plan to re - industrialization, the guild will take if need is the cost of finalizing the prototype to discuss with the inventor.
http://www.radio-silence.org/Sons/2011/LMD/pdf/lmd20110223.pdf
There is a sound file here is the link:http: / / www.radio-silence.org/Sons/2011/LMD/lmd20110223.mp3
If you take the time to listen you will understand Surely this gentleman is not joking.It happens that I'm not kidding either, and as qu'ouvier, technician, supervisor, researcher among other hats that time asked me:
THE SITUATION IS MUCH WORSE THAN THE FIGURES SUGGESTS.
The figures are abstractions, the men burst in the last forty years because it ignores the reality: the abandonment by the executive powers of the state.
But that's not all, growth was due to Zero and Applied. See other articles on the main page of this blog
Think warming climate and its hype. There is no evidence of a warming climate.INDEED!
But a report was commissioned give the visible effects of global warming!Not: Tell us if we risk a warming climate. Not interested.________________
D onc, in 1970 the Club of Rome, commissioned a report from MIT on the limits of growth.
Now it happens nobody at MIT did not suspect that industrial processes were already loaded andMarket "was controlled to establish a standard of sustainability of products at the lowest.
Do not produce what might last too long.That would kill the business!
By ignoring this fact, fundamental to the report announced that it was essential to arrive as soon as possible to a "zero growth".As at MIT we do not, I think there elite politicians, researchers did not realize immediately that Zero growth, signified objects of lower quality, long lasting even less, whose factories will be relocated to low wage countries without competition, or no social protection or almost ....Finallythese researchers did not realize that zero growth meant tens, fifties of millions of unemployed and people without much job opportunity for at least forty or sixty years.
But they also were unaware of this; HP printer maker announced there are more than ten years: The post Inks for printers generates 8% earnings-per-second.
How many seconds in a year?
You did not know!How would you know?
Now you have an alternative, with several components, this alternative is offered, it is called the return to full employment.
POLICY:Plan Re - Industrialization.
EMPLOYMENT - TECHNOLOGY:a Guild of Craftsmen.
IT IS UP TO YOU!
THE BALL IS IN YOUR CAMP!
---------------------------------------- ----------
Estate Real Estate (Land) but also (patents, verified and sponsored by the State) may be a shorter protection time, less than thirty years is to be discussed.O
Finally, we will get to full employment may be the only way to stabilize PEOPLES.
And I speak not of the STO (drift GB), I speak of public shareholding different SCOP, a redefinition of mutual insurance ...
BUT ONLY WITH REAL WAGES.
WITH REAL free enterprise,
O5 years without charges, for entrepreneurs and a bank for entrepreneurs, non-commercial. _
_
RETURN TO FULL EMPLOYMENT.
OIS THE ONLY, GENUINE, MEDIUM TO RETURN TO SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS OF LIFE FOR FAMILIES ....
THAT REQUIRES A PLAN FOR RECOVERY AND INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY.
KNOTYS SEUTON
It is important that the laws encourage the spirit of property
Read the blog on a trip to Lebanon :
"In 2008, 25% of the lowest paid employees earned less than 9,000 € net per year, barely 73% of SMIC , for an average income of € 3,710, or 30% of SMIC . For two-thirds of them, there are workers who were brought to multiply small CSD part-time paid slingshot. It is therefore understood that 6.25 million people are forced to play musical chairs over one million full time equivalent jobs divided into many small contracts. ( Actuchomage )
How have children and a family in such precarious situations. Abortion is a stage "forced" this precarious path of many young people. It should also address the causes of this situation: Open borders? Migration? Lack of work-sharing? Mechanization of many tasks? Service charges and taxes too high in a country invaded standards and paperwork? Christian reflection of social work to do to adapt its proposals and the principles of the encyclicals to present needs.
We never listen enough Popes. To quote Pope Leo XIII wage in 1891 in his encyclical Rerum Novarum :
"That the employer and the worker to do so and therefore such agreements as they please, they fall to agree on the number of such salary. Above their free will, there is a law of natural justice and oldest higher, namely that wages should not be sufficient to support a worker and sober and honest family. ... The worker [...] will by conservative household savings to a small surplus which would enable it to achieve one day to acquire a modest heritage ... It is therefore important that the laws encourage the spirit of ownership among the masses ... ... Because the Man is so made that the thought of working on a fund that is his redoubled his zeal and application. ... All are easily the happy effects of this increased activity on the fertility of the land and the wealth of nations. [And this would also] stop the emigration. Nobody, indeed, would consent to exchange against a foreign region his country and his land home, if he found the means to live a life more tolerable. But there is a prerequisite for all these benefits become reality. It should not be that private property is depleted by excessive charges and taxes [to cancel] the right to private property. "
Michel Jan
El ritmo del nivel of subida del Mediterráneo se ha duplicado
CONSUMER EROSKIarticle
Since the nineteenth century to the present, the level of the ocean has risen 20 centimeters
Twittéalo
* Publication Date: 25 February 2011
Sea levels rose in the Mediterranean between 1 and 1.5 millimeters per year since 1943. This rate was lower than in the rest of the world due to atmospheric pressure at the end of the twentieth century. However, since the beginning of XXI century in the Mediterranean levels have regained the rhythm and have doubled, as reflected in the results updated second edition of "Climate Change in the English Mediterranean." Since the nineteenth century, the Mediterranean Sea level has risen 20 centimeters.
This second edition of the study conducted by researchers at the English Institute of Oceanography (IEO) for the first time collects climate data from 1943 to 2008 "through an ocean observing system is unique in Spain and a pioneer in Europe," said the IEO. This system has confirmed that the Mediterranean is undergoing a warming process. Has also increased its salinity.
However, "during the last three years were added to the study (2005 to 2008) the temperature increase was milder than in the late twentieth century, when sea temperatures rose an outrage, "said lead author of the book, Manuel Vargas Yáñez. The biologist IEO considers necessary to study large data sets to demonstrate the impact of climate change on the Mediterranean, as noted in the Service of Information and Science News (SINC).
The temperature changes are not only due to the effects of climate change but also to natural atmospheric changes and "normal." These changes will always occur. The atmosphere and oceans are chaotic systems, "said Vargas Yáñez. The sea surface layer the temperature rose throughout the twentieth century to a level similar to that of air, about 0.7 or 0.8 ° C." We at the rate of rise of almost one degree per century but can not be extrapolated for the XXI century, because it depends on what human beings do not respond only to the laws of nature, "he said.
"In the beginning God created heaven and earth. Then the earth was chaos and there was a darkness over the abyss, and the Spirit of God hovering above the waters.
http://votreargent.lexpress.fr/bourse/fiches-valeurs/actualite_dep.asp?id=151412GM
General Motors: net profit in Q4
Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 14:28 - By Reuters
General Motors posted a net profit of half a billion dollars for its fourth quarter 2010, earnings per share of 31 cents for a turnover of 36.9 billion.
The automaker said its results were encumbered to the tune of 0.4 billion dollars through a special charge on redemption of preference shares held by the U.S. Treasury, who had intervened in 2009 to save it from bankruptcy.
Net cash flow from operations car came out negative $ 1.7 billion, reflecting a contribution of 4000000000-1 retirement program.
For the full fiscal year, General Motors posted a net profit of 4.7 billion, for a turnover of 135.6 billion.
Copyright (c) 2011 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard University
Why long-term survival of the euro is unlikely
Source: Tribune.fr - 15/02 / 2011 them. And he wondered about the effects of the rise of China.
You are one of the first to analyze the crisis that has affected the world economy from 2007. Can we say that we are now out of this crisis?
The world has faced a great depression. Fortunately, we have resorted to massive fiscal and monetary measures that have enabled us to mitigate their effects. And now, after these support measures excessive, we have the hangover. This takes the form of a sovereign debt crisis, which extends each time a country is attacked by the markets financial, because too much debt. Does this chain will go beyond the euro area and across the Atlantic or take direction from Japan? I have been convinced for a while, because the deficits or the debt of these countries have nothing to envy to those known to us as the Pigs, I mean Portugal, Greece, Ireland or Spain. That's why I expect a significant change in the perception of investors on the risky aspect of Japanese bonds and U.S.. Change that would result in an upward movement of nominal interest rates, with important consequences for these countries. It the risk that currently runs the world economy, given the size of Japanese and U.S. economies.
At the last World Economic Forum in Davos, many speakers stressed the growing gap between the health of emerging economies and the slump in industrial countries. Do you agree with this analysis?
On a historic financial crisis is an epiphenomenon. This is a relatively discrete event that occurs in the context of a massive shift of economic power from West to East. In reality, this crisis has only accelerated this transfer, which began well before 2007.
Is in history, the world witnessed such transfers of power?
If you look a little more than a century ago, there was a similar phenomenon when the United States and Germany have taken over the UK among the top industrial powers. In the first case, this change was made successfully, the United States doubling Britain in the 1870s, and the latter agreeing well its gradual relegation of the status of senior than junior in the context of an Anglo-American partnership. In contrast, in the case Germany, although that country had cultural affinities with Britain, the result was a disastrous conflict. Today, when looking at the China-US relations, one can ask questions. Does the China-US economic partnership will continue to exist? If it were to disappear, for what would it be replaced? By a simple competition between two rivals, or something more serious or even a conflict?
What is your prognosis?
I am not fundamentally pessimistic and I do not think we are at the dawn of a new type of cold war or a bright day of real war between the U.S. and China. This is not inevitable. But in parallel, considering the importance of Chinese demand for raw materials, demand will go on expanding, and the global supply of these minerals or natural, it seems likely that rivalry 'il established between the Western powers and China. This would not be surprising, since most of the major conflicts of the modern era have had the issue of raw materials. In the sixteenth and seventeenth, we fought for gold and silver, the eighteenth for sugar and spices for coal in the nineteenth, twentieth century for oil ... This why I would not be surprised to see the Sino-American partnership, which dates back to 1972 end. And I think we are now seeing its disintegration.
You put in a long-term?
Not really. In fact, we already hear much criticism of U.S. policy on China. When I was in Beijing last November, the Chinese were constantly banging on Ben Bernanke's monetary policy QE2. On the military front, the visit to Beijing from Defense Secretary Robert Gates in January was marked by signals very symbolic of the rise China's military. We already have evidence that this marriage is sinking. The reality is that the so-called Chinamérique boiled down to a marriage between an economic saving and a spender and I always thought that such alliances do not last. After a certain point, it is a very illusory friendship. And for essentially economic reasons, there will arise some friction between the two powers.
Over the next decade, it is unlikely that these tensions are but a military tower on the diplomatic front, we already see the Chinese drive to position itself in the Asia Pacific. At Seoul, for example, Koreans recognize that China has already become the dominant power. What is the country with which they do not want any trouble. But Washington has not yet taken the full measure of that change. Probably because during the last decade, successive administrations have mainly concentrated on the Middle East and the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But during the same period, China has emerged so rapidly in terms of GDP calculated by purchasing power parity, China, by including Taiwan and Hong Kong has already reached the size of the United States. Yet, Americans remain confident that the partnership Sino-American for the long term. "They need us as much as we need them," say U.S. officials. But they are wrong: every year, China has less need of the United States. Conversely, the United States increasingly needs China.
The sovereign debt crisis seems to have subsided in Europe, and yet you remain pessimistic. Why?
already ten years ago, I announced that the euro zone would be an unstable entity because a monetary union without a fiscal union is not sustainable. This analysis was validated by the crisis. Currently, I think the situation remains very fragile and can easily be summarized by one question: the German Christian Democrat voter is willing to accept institutional change leading to income transfers from Germany to the periphery of Europe? The answer is no! Until the reunification of the country, it was accepted that Germany was the financier of the European integration process. It should provide the first contribution to EU budget: for the generation of Helmut Kohl, it was a sort of repair after the Second World War. The new generations do not feel German same obligation. This poses a major problem, because if there's nobody to check, the process of European integration can not continue. In fact, it might even go backwards.
So the first problem is the political obstacle, Angela Merkel can not or will not explain why ordinary German citizens they must continue to fund this process. There would, however, a very simple answer: if the Germans refused to continue paying the banks of the German Lander will sink. Because it is not a sovereign debt crisis but a banking crisis whose epicenter is located in Germany. But this reasoning completely escapes the German public, who thinks she works hard and pays for his lazy neighbors.
Why do you say that European integration can even go backwards?
We live in a time of economic disintegration, which is very deep and structural. If you look at unit labor costs since the inception of the euro area in 1999, you notice a difference, not convergence, which is very problematic. In the previous period, we have solved the problem with currency devaluations in countries that became too expensive. Today the only possible adjustment would be through reductions of nominal wages to workers Greeks, Irish, Portuguese or English, which seems very difficult.
You see a risk of bursting of the euro area?
This risk is real and I think it would be a great mistake to believe that just because the Euro now exists, there will always be there in 10 years. The lack of political will in Germany and the structural disintegration at work in the euro area are two factors that make long-term survival of the euro unlikely. Meanwhile, from the perspective of Berlin, the euro is a necessary evil, because without him, the Germans would have the same problems that the Swiss with their currency too strong. The best argument for the survival of the euro area it serves very effectively the interests of German industry.
You mean because of its exchange rate?
Exactly! Remember the significance of the euro area: there is an agreement that gave overly indebted countries like Belgium or Italy's low interest rates in Germany, Germany in return for receiving a rate weaker exchange. That was the deal! But the problem today is that in the absence of transfers center to the periphery and without a real integration of the labor market, the only way to keep the euro area in its current form through deflation in peripheral countries. Or, should the European Central Bank should introduce quantitative easing, the type and QE2, is much more aggressive in monetizing the debt ...
It seems possible you?
The simplest solution to solve the crisis in the euro area is that Trichet becomes Bernanke adopts the QE2 and buys bonds, and the euro weakens a bit. The Chinese might respond favorably to it even more by buying the debt of Pigs. The alternative, harder, would be to ask the Greeks or the Irish to turn their deficit from 10% of GDP to a surplus of 5% of GDP, and this is impossible! Especially there is a factor that should never be underestimated in the post crisis: what are the political consequences.
Until now, we are quite able to avoid them ...
Yes, but it is a slow burning! People often fail to realize that history does not unfold at the pace of a football match. The events are at their own pace, but already we see in many European countries major political turning points, irreversibly breaking the consensus that existed between Christian and Social Democrats since the postwar period. I am convinced that populism will become increasingly powerful in Europe. It is difficult to believe that the populists are vibrant defenders of the European project, for their goodwill, nationalism and xenophobia.
When you look at history, what is the best way out of a debt crisis? And how long will it take?
There have been a country that had a debt exceeding 200% of its GDP, which did not fail, and who has not seen inflation. This is Great Britain after the Battle of Waterloo. Between 1815 and 1914, the British debt was reduced, thanks to strong growth, with primary budget surpluses and finally thanks to low interest rates. Great Britain was, admittedly, have two advantages: the industrial revolution and the contribution of its colonial empire. Unfortunately, this is the only case I know of. And this one exception, all countries have accumulated debts too large in relation to GDP were taken from default or inflation, depending on whether the debt was denominated in their own currency or in foreign currency. We thus see well what might happen: the countries that can not print money will be missing, like Ireland, Greece and perhaps others. The others, who can create currency, starting with the United States will experience inflation and currency depreciation. That is also the lesson of history.
PORTRAIT
Niall Ferguson, a Scotsman fiber Braudelian
Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard but also an author of books and historical economic and documentaries for television commentator and highly sought after by the media, rarely in sobriety. The next book of this middle-aged Scottish Oxford graduate, to be released in Britain in March, simply titled "Civilization". A book that its author calls "Braudellian," referring to the famous French historian (1902-1985), which aims to decipher the various factors that enabled the rise and domination of the West on the world for 5 centuries. Factors that have disappeared or which the West has no monopoly, the author analyzes. Orthodharma